Nation Runner

Bandera de AlemaniaRedacción del país · actualizado 25 oct

Alemania

Alemania está gobernada por una coalición negra-roja ajustada: CDU/CSU más SPD. Ocupan 328 de 630 escaños —doce por encima de una mayoría— después de las elecciones anticipadas de febrero de 2025. El AfD es la mayor oposición y ahora lidera las encuestas. Las viejas Volksparteien ya no mandan a la mayoría de los votantes. Ese es todo el panorama.

Puntos clave

  1. 1

    Encuestas. AfD lidera la última encuesta de Forsa con 26%, 7 puntos por delante de CDU/CSU. Mayor cambio desde 15 sept: SPD +2.

  2. 2

    Titulares. El tono es estable: 13% de los titulares de los últimos 14 días son sombríos, 6% optimistas. Tema principal: Política (29%).

  3. 3

    Gobierno. Barómetro del gobierno 55/100 (Balance mixto). De 28 medidas registradas, 11 se consideran acertadas y 6 perjudiciales.

  4. 4

    Próximo voto. Elección del Presidente Federal el 30 de enero de 2027, en 96 días.

Estado de ánimo del titular · 14 días

Línea: estado de ánimo · barras: historias

25 oct · 8 historias · con tendencia sombría1 optimista · 5 neutral · 2 sombrío

De qué hablan los titulares

  • Otros 29%
  • Política 29%
  • Seguridad 25%
  • Economía 13%
  • Sociedad 3%
  • Clima 2%

Una estimación simple de la lista de palabras de los titulares diarios. No es un juicio.

Tendencia de las encuestas · Forsa

  • AfD26%
  • CDU/CSU19%
  • Greens17%
  • SPD14%
  • Left12%+1
  • FDP4%

Cambio respecto a la encuesta del 6 oct.

Mapa · estado de ánimo comparado

Alemania

Estado de ánimo general: 13% sombrío, 6% optimista · hoy -12

Qué cambió hoy

25 oct

  • 25 oct: 8 historias (promedio 8); tono habitual.
  • Última encuesta de Forsa (13 oct): Left +1 contra 6 oct.

Nuevas noticias

3 noticias más
A principios de esta semana: 10 noticias más

Los titulares y resúmenes provienen de las fuentes vinculadas; la selección es automática. Las traducciones son automáticas (Workers AI) y pueden ser incorrectas; el original vinculado es autoritario.

Ir más a fondo

Partidos, personas, promesas, dinero

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

La sala

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

El acuerdo

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

El estado de ánimo

Elecciones vs ahora

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

El país

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

Oeste

Primero en este mosaico: CDU · pulsar una barra para abrir el partido

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

La tendencia

Desde la noche de las elecciones hasta ahora

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

La división

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

La discrepancia

Escaños que ocupan vs la encuesta

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

Las caras

Abrir un expediente

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

Toca una cara para ver el perfil completo

El indicador grosero

El rey del crecimiento o una pelea con el trabajo

Quién hace crecer la tarta, quién se pelea con el trabajo. El gabinete se reúne en 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

Contra el trabajoMixed recordRey del crecimiento

Cadenas causales completas viven en cada promesa

Bastidores

Quién tiene su oído

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

Finanzas · quién recoge primero

Esta semana

El pulso

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

Política 101

Cómo funciona realmente este país

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

Elecciones

Qué hay en el calendario

Elecciones nacionales y las principales votaciones en estos escritorios, para los próximos 24 meses aproximadamente. La fecha procede de la autoridad electoral. Una encuesta solo aparece cuando un encuestador nombrado la publicó en los últimos 60 días.

Elección del Presidente Federal

Fecha fijada

30 Jan 2027

96 días

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

Fuente de la fecha: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

Elecciones estatales de Schleswig-Holstein

Fecha fijada

18 Apr 2027

174 días

Fuente de la fecha: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elección estatal de Renania del Norte-Westfalia

Fecha fijada

25 Apr 2027

181 días

Fuente de la fecha: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Intención de voto

Forsa

Trabajo de campo 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · Publicado 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • AfD22%
  • Verdes18%
  • SPD14%
  • Izquierda8%
  • FDP3%
  • Otros6%

Forsa

Elecciones estatales de Baja Sajonia

Fecha fijada

26 Sept 2027

335 días

Fuente de la fecha: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elecciones estatales de Baviera

Esperado

Esperado autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fuente de la fecha: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elecciones estatales de Hesse

Esperado

Esperado autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fuente de la fecha: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Cómo se ve a los extranjeros

Apertura en Alemania

Solo encuestas publicadas. Cada cifra indica su fuente y año.

Quién es bien recibido

Porcentaje de adultos en Alemania con opinión favorable de cada país por el que preguntó Pew.

Indicadores de apertura

Tres medidas distintas, cada una de su propio año. No las mezclamos.

7,120166,42023

Lo que dicen los expatriados

InterNations Expat Insider 2025: puesto entre 46 destinos, 1 es el mejor.

  • Facilidad para instalarse43 de 46
  • Cultura y acogida43 de 46
  • Amabilidad local42 de 46
  • Hacer amigos42 de 46

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

En pocas palabras

  • Los expatriados situaron a Alemania en el puesto 43 de 46 en facilidad para instalarse (2025); su mejor apartado fue amabilidad local, en el puesto 42.
  • De los 3 países por los que Pew preguntó aquí, Estados Unidos obtuvo las opiniones más favorables (33 %, 2025).
  • Las opiniones favorables de Rusia pasaron del 35 % en 2018 al 14 % en 2025 (Pew).
  • El Migrant Acceptance Index de Gallup pasó de 7,1 en 2016 a 6,4 en 2023, en una escala de 0–9.
Fuentes y método

Pew pregunta a adultos su opinión sobre un país. Es una visión del país, no de su gente ni de ningún visitante. Nunca estimamos un par que no se preguntó.

Los puestos de InterNations proceden de expatriados que viven en el país (46 destinos). El Migrant Acceptance Index de Gallup va de 0 a 9. MIPEX puntúa leyes y políticas de integración de 0 a 100.

Qué significa para ti

Qué significa para ti

Solo se incluyen las cifras con una fuente y una fecha. Cada fuente se enumera en “Cómo obtenemos esta información” en la parte inferior de la página. Cualquier información no listada aquí no está disponible.

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

Fuentes, licencias y créditos de imagen

Datos

  • Alambre (fuentes RSS públicas):X, FAZ Politik, WELT Politik.
  • Encuestas:Forsa Fuente.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • Indicador editorial de competencia económica, no un tribunal ni un Premio Nobel. Seis ejes: energía, contratación, capital, construcción, horas de trabajo, trámites burocráticos. Las puntuaciones son un juicio basado en registros públicos de este mandato y el anterior — no una acusación de soborno, ni una recomendación de voto.

Fuentes de la encuesta

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. Fuente. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. Fuente · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
Preguntas que el escritorio realmente responde

Preguntas frecuentes

Preguntas que el escritorio realmente responde

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
Cómo obtenemos los datos

Instantánea del 21º Bundestag y cobertura pública hasta el 26 sept 2026. Fuentes en vivo: Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, más búsqueda Grok de 20 cuentas de políticos y 20 redacciones en X. Cada noticia está etiquetada por tema, tono y quién enmarca ayuda. La pestaña Dinero utiliza donaciones brutas divulgadas, el registro de lobby, LobbyControl y DonationWatch — no un veredicto de soborno. La pestaña Rey es un indicador editorial de crecimiento frente a trabajo-guerra con cadenas causales — no un Premio Nobel. No es una recomendación de voto.

Qué significa para ti

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