Nation Runner

Bandiera di GermaniaRedazione paese · aggiornato 25 ott

Germania

La Germania è retta da una coalizione nera-rossa esile: CDU/CSU più SPD. Detengono 328 seggi su 630 — dodici sopra la maggioranza — dopo le elezioni anticipate del febbraio 2025. L'AfD è l'opposizione più grande e ora guida i sondaggi. Le vecchie Volksparteien non comandano più la maggioranza degli elettori. Questa è l'intera situazione.

Punti chiave

  1. 1

    Sondaggi. AfD guida l'ultimo sondaggio Forsa con il 26%, 7 punti davanti a CDU/CSU. La maggiore variazione dal 15 set: SPD +2.

  2. 2

    Notizie. Il tono è stabile: 13% delle notizie degli ultimi 14 giorni sono cupe, 6% positive. Argomento principale: Politica (29%).

  3. 3

    Governo. Barometro del governo 55/100 (Bilancio misto). 11 delle 28 mosse archiviate sono considerate intelligenti, 6 dannose.

  4. 4

    Prossimo voto. Elezione del Presidente Federale il 30 gennaio 2027, tra 96 giorni.

Umore principale · 14 giorni

Linea: umore · barre: storie

25 ott · 8 storie · tendente al cupo1 allegro · 5 neutral · 2 cupo

Di cosa parlano i titoli

  • Altro 29%
  • Politica 29%
  • Sicurezza 25%
  • Economia 13%
  • Società 3%
  • Clima 2%

Una stima semplice basata sull'elenco delle notizie quotidiane. Non un giudizio.

Tendenza dei sondaggi · Forsa

  • AfD26%
  • CDU/CSU19%
  • Greens17%
  • SPD14%
  • Left12%+1
  • FDP4%

Variazione rispetto al sondaggio del 6 ott.

Mappa · umore confrontato

Germania

Umore generale: 13% cupo, 6% allegro · oggi -12

Cosa è cambiato oggi

25 ott

  • 25 ott: 8 storie (media 8); tono come al solito.
  • Ultimo sondaggio Forsa (13 ott): Left +1 rispetto a 6 ott.

Nuovi titoli

3 altri titoli
All'inizio di questa settimana: 10 altri titoli

Titoli e sommari provengono dalle fonti collegate; la selezione è automatica. Le traduzioni sono automatiche (Workers AI) e possono essere errate; il testo originale collegato è autorevole.

Approfondisci

Partiti, persone, promesse, denaro

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

La stanza

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

L'accordo

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

L'umore

Elezione vs ora

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

Il paese

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

Ovest

Primo su questa scheda: CDU · tocca una barra per aprire il partito

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

La tendenza

Dalla notte delle elezioni a ora

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

La spaccatura

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

La discrepanza

Seggi che detengono vs il sondaggio

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

I volti

Apri un fascicolo

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

Tocca un volto per il profilo completo

L'indicatore offensivo

Re della crescita o una lotta con il lavoro

Chi fa crescere la torta, chi sceglie la lotta con il lavoro. Il gabinetto si riunisce a 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

Contro il lavoroMixed recordRe della crescita

Le catene causali complete vivono su ogni promessa

Backstage

Chi ha il loro orecchio

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

Finanza · chi prende per primo

Questa settimana

Il battito

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

Politica 101

Come funziona realmente questo paese

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

Elezioni

Cosa c'è in calendario

Elezioni nazionali e i principali voti su questi banconi, per circa i prossimi 24 mesi. La data proviene dall'autorità elettorale. Un sondaggio appare solo quando un sondaggista nominato lo ha pubblicato negli ultimi 60 giorni.

Elezione del Presidente Federale

Data fissata

30 Jan 2027

96 giorni

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

Fonte della data: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

Elezioni statali dello Schleswig-Holstein

Data fissata

18 Apr 2027

174 giorni

Fonte della data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elezioni statali della Renania Settentrionale-Vestfalia

Data fissata

25 Apr 2027

181 giorni

Fonte della data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Intenzione di voto

Forsa

Rilevamento 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · Pubblicato 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • AfD22%
  • Verdi18%
  • SPD14%
  • Sinistra8%
  • FDP3%
  • Altri6%

Forsa

Elezioni statali della Bassa Sassonia

Data fissata

26 Sept 2027

335 giorni

Fonte della data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elezioni statali della Baviera

Previsto

Previsto autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fonte della data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Elezioni statali dell'Assia

Previsto

Previsto autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fonte della data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Come sono visti gli stranieri

Apertura in Germania

Solo sondaggi pubblicati. Ogni cifra indica fonte e anno.

Chi è ben visto

Quota di adulti in Germania con un'opinione favorevole di ogni paese su cui Pew ha chiesto.

Indicatori di apertura

Tre misure distinte, ognuna del suo anno. Non le mescoliamo.

7,120166,42023

Cosa dicono gli espatriati

InterNations Expat Insider 2025: posizione su 46 destinazioni, 1 è la migliore.

  • Facilità di ambientarsi43 su 46
  • Cultura e accoglienza43 su 46
  • Cordialità locale42 su 46
  • Fare amicizia42 su 46

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

In parole semplici

  • Gli espatriati hanno messo Germania al 43 posto su 46 per facilità di ambientarsi (2025); il miglior sottopunteggio è stato cordialità locale, al posto 42.
  • Dei 3 paesi su cui Pew ha chiesto qui, Stati Uniti ha ottenuto le opinioni più favorevoli (33%, 2025).
  • Le opinioni favorevoli su Russia sono passate dal 35% nel 2018 al 14% nel 2025 (Pew).
  • Il Migrant Acceptance Index di Gallup è passato da 7,1 nel 2016 a 6,4 nel 2023, su una scala 0–9.
Fonti e metodo

Pew chiede agli adulti la loro opinione su un paese. È una visione del paese, non della sua gente né di un visitatore. Non stimiamo mai una coppia non chiesta.

Le posizioni InterNations vengono da espatriati che vivono nel paese (46 destinazioni). Il Migrant Acceptance Index di Gallup va da 0 a 9. MIPEX valuta leggi e politiche di integrazione da 0 a 100.

Cosa significa per te

Cosa significa per te

Solo le cifre con una fonte e una data. Ogni fonte è elencata sotto “Come otteniamo questi dati” nella parte inferiore della pagina. Qualsiasi informazione non elencata qui non è disponibile.

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

Fonti, licenze e crediti per le immagini

Dati

  • Wire (flussi RSS pubblici):X, FAZ Politik, WELT Politik.
  • Sondaggi:Forsa Fonte.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • Gauge di competenza economica editoriale, non una corte e non un Nobel. Sei assi: energia, assunzioni, capitale, costruzione, ore di lavoro, burocrazia. I punteggi sono un giudizio basato sui documenti pubblici di questo mandato e dell'ultimo — non un'accusa di corruzione, non una raccomandazione di voto.

Fonti del sondaggio

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. Fonte. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. Fonte · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
Domande a cui la scrivania risponde effettivamente

FAQ

Domande a cui la scrivania risponde effettivamente

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
Come troviamo le fonti

Istantanea del 21° Bundestag e resoconti pubblici fino al 26 set 2026. Collegamenti live: Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, più ricerca Grok di 20 account di politici e 20 redazioni su X. Ogni notizia è etichettata per argomento, tono e chi il frame aiuta. La scheda Denaro utilizza Grosspenden dichiarati, il registro delle lobby, LobbyControl e DonationWatch — non un verdetto di corruzione. La scheda Re è un indicatore editoriale di crescita vs lavoro-guerra con catene causali — non un Nobel. Non è una raccomandazione di voto.

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