Nation Runner

ドイツの国旗国別デスク · 更新 10月25日

ドイツ

ドイツは、CDU/CSUとSPDの黒赤連合によって運営されている。彼らは630議席のうち328議席を占めており、過半数を上回る12議席を獲得した。2025年2月の snap選挙後の結果である。AfDは最大野党であり、現在世論調査でトップに立っている。旧Volkparteienはもはや有権者の大多数を支配していない。これが全体の風景である。

主なポイント

  1. 1

    世論調査. ドイツの選択肢が最新のForsa世論調査で26％、7ポイント差でCDU/CSUをリード。 9月15日以来の最大の動き：SPD +2

  2. 2

    主要ニュース. トーンは安定: 過去 14 日間のニュースのうち 13% は厳しい、6% は前向き。 注目の話題: 政治 (29%)。

  3. 3

    政府. 政府の評価 55/100 (評価が分かれる)。 記録された28件の施策のうち、11件が賢明、6件が有害と評価されています。

  4. 4

    次の投票. 2027年1月30日に連邦大統領選挙、残り96日。

ヘッドラインのムード · 14 日

ライン: ムード · バー: ストーリー

10月25日 · 8 ストーリー · やや厳しい1 前向き · 5 neutral · 2 厳しい

ヘッドラインが報じる内容

  • その他 29%
  • 政治 29%
  • 安全保障 25%
  • 経済 13%
  • 社会 3%
  • 気候 2%

デイリー・ワイヤーのヘッドラインからの簡単な単語リスト推定。判断を下すものではない。

世論調査の傾向 · Forsa

  • AfD26%
  • CDU/CSU19%
  • Greens17%
  • SPD14%
  • Left12%+1
  • FDP4%

10月6日の調査との変化

地図 · ムード比較

ドイツ

全体的なムード: 13% 厳しい, 6% 前向き · 今日 -12

今日の変化

10月25日

  • 10月25日: 8記事 (平均8)。トーンは通常通り。
  • 最新のForsa調査 (10月13日): Left +1対10月6日

最新ニュース

3件の新しいニュース
今週のニュース: 10件

見出しと要約はリンク先から; 自動で選定しています 翻訳は自動 (Workers AI) で行われており、誤りがある可能性があります。リンク先の原文が正確です。

詳細を見る

政党、人物、公約、資金

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

議場

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

取引

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

ムード

現在の選挙 vs 現在

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

国

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

西部

このタイルの最初の情報： CDU · グラフをタップして政党を開く

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

傾向

選挙当夜から現在まで

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

分裂

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

不一致

議席数と世論調査の比較

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

顔たち

ドシエを開く

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

顔をタップしてプロフィール全文を表示

失礼なゲージ

経済成長の王か、労働との闘争か

誰が経済成長を促進するか、誰が労働と対立するか。内閣はここに座る 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

雇用に逆行Mixed record成長の牽引役

約束の連鎖はすべて生きたまま

舞台裏

誰が耳元で話しているのか

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

ファイナンス · 誰が最初に拾うのか

今週

脈

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

政治101

この国が実際にどのように機能するか

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

選挙

予定されているもの

これらのデスクでの国家選挙と主要な投票予定を、約24か月分掲載しています。日付は選挙当局によるものです。名前付きの世論調査機関が過去60日以内に公開した世論調査のみ表示しています。

連邦大統領選挙

日程を設定

30 Jan 2027

96 日

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

出典: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

シュレスヴィヒ＝ホルシュタイン州選挙

日程を設定

18 Apr 2027

174 日

出典: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

ノルトライン＝ヴェストファーレン州議会選挙

日程を設定

25 Apr 2027

181 日

出典: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

投票意向

Forsa

調査期間 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · 公開 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • ドイツの選択肢22%
  • 緑の党18%
  • SPD14%
  • 左8%
  • FDP3%
  • その他6%

Forsa

バイエルン州選挙

予想

予想 autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

出典: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

ヘッセン州選挙

予想

予想 autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

出典: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

外国人はどう見られているか

ドイツの開放性

公表された調査のみ。各数値に出典と年を示します。

誰が歓迎されているか

Pewが尋ねた各国について好意的な意見を持つドイツの成人の割合。

開放性の指標

3つの別々の指標で、それぞれ年が異なります。混ぜ合わせません。

7.120166.42023

駐在者・移住者の声

InterNations Expat Insider 2025:46の渡航先中の順位、1位が最高。

  • 定住のしやすさ46中43位
  • 文化と歓迎46中43位
  • 地元の人の親しみやすさ46中42位
  • 友人づくり46中42位

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

ひとことで

  • 駐在者・移住者はドイツの定住のしやすさを46中43位と評価しました(2025)。最も良い項目は地元の人の親しみやすさで42位でした。
  • Pewがここで尋ねた3か国のうち、アメリカ合衆国への好意的な意見が最も多くなりました(33%、2025)。
  • ロシアへの好意的な意見は2018年の35%から2025年の14%に変わりました(Pew)。
  • Gallupの移民受容指数(0–9)は2016年の7.1から2023年の6.4に変わりました。
出典と方法

Pewは成人に国についての意見を尋ねています。それは国への見方であり、その国の人々や訪問者個人への見方ではありません。質問されていない組み合わせは推定しません。

InterNationsの順位はその国に住む駐在者・移住者(46の渡航先)の評価です。Gallupの移民受容指数は0から9まで。MIPEXは統合に関する法と政策を0から100で評価します。

あなたにとっての意味

あなたにとっての意味

出典と日付のあるデータのみ掲載しています。出典の詳細はページ下部の「データの出典について」をご覧ください。掲載のないものはデータとして保管されていません。

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

出典、ライセンス、画像クレジット

データ

  • ワイヤー（パブリックRSSフィード）：X, FAZ Politik, WELT Politik.
  • 世論調査：Forsa 出典.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • 編集部による経済的適性評価、裁判所やノーベル賞ではない。6つの軸：エネルギー、雇用、資本、建設、労働時間、規制。スコアは、現職と前職の公的記録に基づく判断であり、贈賄罪の有罪判決や投票推薦ではない。

調査出典

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. 出典. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. 出典 · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
机が実際に答える質問

よくある質問

机が実際に答える質問

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
情報源について

2026年9月26日までの第21回ドイツ連邦議会と公報のスナップショット。 ライブワイヤー：Tagesschau、Spiegel、ZEIT、ドイツ連邦政府、ドイツ連邦議会RSS、さらに20の政治家アカウントと20のニュースデスクのGrok検索。 各ニュース項目は、トピック、トーン、および誰がフレームを支援しているかによってタグ付けされます。 マネータブは、公開されているGrosspenden、ロビーレジスター、LobbyControlおよびDonationWatchを使用 — 汚職の有罪判決ではありません。 キングタブは、編集による成長と仕事と戦争のゲージで、因果関係のあるチェーン — ノーベル賞ではありません。 投票の推奨ではありません。

あなたにとっての意味

クッキー 言語とテーマはこのブラウザに保存されます。分析（DataFast）は承諾した場合のみ収集され、かつ本デプロイにウェブサイトIDがある場合のみです。 プライバシー.