Nation Runner

독일의 국기국가 데스크 · 업데이트됨 10월 25일

독일

독일은 검은색과 붉은색의 연립정부에 의해 운영되고 있습니다: CDU/CSU와 SPD. 그들은 630석 중 328석을 차지하고 있습니다 — 과반수 이상 12석 — 2025년 2월의 조기 선거 이후. AfD는 가장 큰 야당이며 현재 여론조사를 주도하고 있습니다. 전통적인 Volksparteien은 더 이상 대부분의 유권자를 지휘하지 못합니다. 이것이 전체 풍경입니다.

핵심 내용

  1. 1

    여론조사. 대체당가 최신 Forsa 여론조사에서 26%로 7포인트 앞서 CDU/CSU를 리드합니다. 9월 15일 이후 가장 큰 변동: SPD +2.

  2. 2

    헤드라인. 기조는 안정적이다: 최근 14일 동안의 13% 헤드라인은 우울했고, 6% 긍정적이었습니다. 최고 화제: 정치 (29%).

  3. 3

    정부. 정부 평가 지수 55/100 (엇갈린 평가). 기록된 조치 28건 중 11건은 현명한 조치, 6건은 해로운 조치로 평가됩니다.

  4. 4

    다음 투표. 연방 대통령 선거 - 2027년 1월 30일, 96일 후.

헤드라인 분위기 · 14일간

선: 분위기 · 막대: 기사

10월 25일 · 8 기사들 · 우울한 쪽으로 기울어짐1 낙관적 · 5 neutral · 2 우울

헤드라인이 말하는 것

  • 기타 29%
  • 정치 29%
  • 안보 25%
  • 경제 13%
  • 사회 3%
  • 기후 2%

데일리 와이어 헤드라인의 단순한 단어 목록 추정치. 판단이 아님.

투표 추세 · Forsa

  • AfD26%
  • CDU/CSU19%
  • Greens17%
  • SPD14%
  • Left12%+1
  • FDP4%

10월 6일 투표 대비 변동.

지도 · 감정 비교

독일

종합적인 분위기: 13% 우울, 6% 낙관적 · 오늘 -12

오늘의 변화는

10월 25일

  • 10월 25일: 8 기사 (평균 8); 평소와 같은 어조.
  • 최신 Forsa 여론조사 (10월 13일): Left +1 대 10월 6일.

새로운 헤드라인

3개의 오늘의 추가 보도는 원어로만 제공됩니다. 독일판에서 읽어보세요.

이번 주 초: 10개의 추가 헤드라인

헤드라인과 요약은 링크된 출처에서 제공되며, 선택은 자동입니다. 번역은 자동(워커스 AI)이며 잘못될 수 있습니다. 연결된 원본이 권위 있습니다.

더 자세히

정당, 인물, 공약, 자금

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

의원실

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

합의안

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

기분

선거 vs 현재

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

국가

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

서

이 타일에서 처음으로 표시된 항목: CDU · 막대를 눌러 정당을 열기

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

경향

선거일 밤부터 현재까지

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

분열

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

불일치

그들이 차지한 의석 vs 여론조사

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

얼굴들

도심 열기

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

전체 프로필을 보려면 얼굴을 탭하세요

무례한 척도

성장 왕국 또는 노동과의 싸움

누가 파이를 성장시키는지, 누가 노동과 싸우는지. 내각은 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

일자리에 역행Mixed record성장 주도형

모든 약속은 완전한 인과관계로 이어진다

무대 뒤에서

누가 그들의 귀를 기울이고 있는가

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

금융 · 누가 먼저 받나

이번 주

맥박

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

정치 101

이 나라가 실제로 작동하는 방식

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

선거

일정에는 무엇인가요

앞으로 약 24개월 동안 이 책상에 있는 전국 선거와 주요 투표입니다. 날짜는 선거 당국에서 제공했습니다. 여론조사는 지난 60일 이내에 이름이 있는 여론조사 기관이 발표했을 때만 표시됩니다.

연방 대통령 선거

날짜 설정

30 Jan 2027

96 일

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

출처 날짜: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

노르트라인-베스트팔렌 주 선거

날짜 설정

25 Apr 2027

181 일

출처 날짜: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

투표 의향

Forsa

현장 조사 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · 게시됨 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • 대체당22%
  • 녹색당18%
  • SPD14%
  • 좌파8%
  • FDP3%
  • 기타6%

Forsa

바이에른주 의회 선거

예상

예상 autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

출처 날짜: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

헤센주 선거

예상

예상 autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

출처 날짜: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

외국인은 어떻게 보이나

독일의 개방성

공개된 조사만 사용합니다. 모든 수치에 출처와 연도를 표시합니다.

누가 환영받나

Pew가 물은 각 나라에 대해 호의적인 의견을 가진 독일 성인의 비율.

개방성 지표

세 가지 별개 지표이며 각각 연도가 다릅니다. 하나로 합치지 않습니다.

7.120166.42023

외국인 거주자들의 평가

InterNations Expat Insider 2025: 46개 목적지 중 순위, 1위가 최고.

  • 정착 용이성46개 중 43위
  • 문화와 환영46개 중 43위
  • 현지인의 친절함46개 중 42위
  • 친구 사귀기46개 중 42위

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

쉽게 말하면

  • 외국인 거주자들은 독일의 정착 용이성을 46개 중 43위로 평가했습니다(2025). 가장 좋은 세부 항목은 현지인의 친절함으로 42위였습니다.
  • Pew가 이곳에서 물은 3개 나라 중 미국에 대한 호의적 의견이 가장 많았습니다(33%, 2025).
  • 러시아에 대한 호의적 의견은 2018년 35%에서 2025년 14%로 바뀌었습니다(Pew).
  • Gallup 이주민 수용 지수는 0–9 척도에서 2016년 7.1에서 2023년 6.4로 바뀌었습니다.
출처와 방법

Pew는 성인에게 한 나라에 대한 의견을 묻습니다. 이는 그 나라에 대한 시각이지 그 나라 사람이나 방문자 개인에 대한 시각이 아닙니다. 묻지 않은 조합은 추정하지 않습니다.

InterNations 순위는 그 나라에 사는 외국인 거주자(46개 목적지)의 평가입니다. Gallup 이주민 수용 지수는 0에서 9까지입니다. MIPEX는 통합 법과 정책을 0에서 100까지 평가합니다.

나에게 미치는 영향

나에게 미치는 영향

출처와 날짜가 있는 수치만 포함됩니다. 각 출처는 페이지 하단의 '데이터 출처는 어떻게 찾았나요?'에서 확인할 수 있습니다. 여기에 나열되지 않은 정보는 기록되지 않았습니다.

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

출처, 라이선스 및 이미지 크레딧

데이터

  • Wire (공개 RSS 피드):X, FAZ Politik, WELT Politik.
  • 여론조사:Forsa 출처.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • 편집자의 경제 능력 평가, 법원이나 노벨상은 아님. 여섯 축: 에너지, 고용, 자본, 건설, 노동 시간, 규제. 점수는 이번 임기 및 이전의 공공 기록에 대한 판단 - 뇌물 혐의나 투표 추천은 아님.

조사 출처

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. 출처. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. 출처 · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
데스크에서 실제로 답변하는 질문

자주 묻는 질문

데스크에서 실제로 답변하는 질문

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
출처 확인 방법

2026년 9월 26일까지의 21대 Bundestag와 공공 보고에 대한 스냅샷. 실시간 정보: Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, 그리고 X에서 20명의 정치인 계정과 20개의 뉴스 데스크에 대한 Grok 검색. 각 뉴스 항목은 주제, 톤, 그리고 프레임이 도움이 되는 사람으로 태그됩니다. 돈 탭은 공개된 Grosspenden, 로비 등록부, LobbyControl 및 DonationWatch를 사용합니다 — 뇌물 혐의가 아닙니다. King 탭은 편집 성장 대 업무-전쟁 게이지로 인과 사슬을 보여줍니다 — 노벨상이 아닙니다. 투표 추천이 아닙니다.

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