Nation Runner

Bandeira de AlemanhaRedação do país · atualizado 25 de out.

Alemanha

A Alemanha é governada por uma coligação preta-vermelha fina: CDU/CSU mais SPD. Eles detêm 328 de 630 assentos — doze acima da maioria — após as eleições antecipadas de fevereiro de 2025. O AfD é a maior oposição e agora lidera as sondagens. As velhas Volksparteien não comandam mais a maioria dos eleitores. Essa é toda a paisagem.

Principais conclusões

  1. 1

    Sondagens. AfD lidera a última sondagem do Forsa com 26%, 7 pontos à frente de CDU/CSU. Maior mudança desde 15 de set.: SPD +2.

  2. 2

    Notícias de destaque. O tom é estável: 13% das notícias de destaque dos últimos 14 dias são sombrias, 6% positivas. Tópico principal: Política (29%).

  3. 3

    Governo. Barómetro do governo 55/100 (Balanço misto). 11 das 28 medidas em arquivo são consideradas inteligentes, 6 prejudiciais.

  4. 4

    Próxima votação. Eleição do Presidente Federal em 30 de janeiro de 2027, daqui a 96 dias.

Humor do título · 14 dias

Linha: humor · barras: notícias

25 de out. · 8 histórias · tendendo a sombrio1 otimista · 5 neutral · 2 sombrio

Sobre o que falam as manchetes

  • Outros 29%
  • Política 29%
  • Segurança 25%
  • Economia 13%
  • Sociedade 3%
  • Clima 2%

Uma estimativa simples de lista de palavras a partir das manchetes diárias. Não é um julgamento.

Tendência de sondagem · Forsa

  • AfD26%
  • CDU/CSU19%
  • Greens17%
  • SPD14%
  • Left12%+1
  • FDP4%

Alteração em relação à sondagem de 6 de out..

Mapa · humor comparado

Alemanha

Humor geral: 13% sombrio, 6% otimista · hoje -12

O que mudou hoje

25 de out.

  • 25 de out.: 8 histórias (média 8); tom habitual.
  • Último inquérito da Forsa (13 de out.): Left +1 contra 6 de out..

Novos títulos

3 mais títulos
No início desta semana: 10 mais títulos

Os títulos e resumos vêm das fontes vinculadas; a seleção é automática. As traduções são automáticas (Workers AI) e podem estar erradas; o original vinculado é autoritativo.

Aprofunde

Partidos, pessoas, promessas, dinheiro

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

A sala

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

O acordo

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

O clima

Eleição vs agora

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

O país

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

Oeste

Primeiro nesta telha: CDU · toque numa barra para abrir o partido

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

A tendência

Da noite da eleição até agora

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

A divisão

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

O desajuste

Cadeiras que ocupam vs. sondagem

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

Os rostos

Abrir um dossiê

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

Toque num rosto para o perfil completo

O indicador rude

Rei do crescimento ou uma luta com o trabalho

Quem cresce a torta, quem escolhe lutar com o trabalho. O gabinete senta-se em 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

Contra o trabalhoMixed recordRei do crescimento

Cadeias causais completas vivem em cada promessa

Nos bastidores

Quem tem o seu ouvido

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

Finanças · quem apanha primeiro

Esta semana

O pulso

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

Política 101

Como este país realmente funciona

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

Eleições

O que está no calendário

Eleições nacionais e as principais votações nestas mesas, para cerca dos próximos 24 meses. A data vem da autoridade eleitoral. Uma sondagem só aparece quando um sondador nomeado a publicou nos últimos 60 dias.

Eleição do Presidente Federal

Data definida

30 Jan 2027

96 dias

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

Fonte de data: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

Eleições estaduais de Schleswig-Holstein

Data definida

18 Apr 2027

174 dias

Fonte de data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Eleições estaduais da Renânia do Norte-Vestfália

Data definida

25 Apr 2027

181 dias

Fonte de data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Intenção de voto

Forsa

Trabalho de campo 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · Publicado 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • AfD22%
  • Verdes18%
  • SPD14%
  • Esquerda8%
  • FDP3%
  • Outros6%

Forsa

Eleições estaduais da Baviera

Esperado

Esperado autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fonte de data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Eleição estadual de Hesse

Esperado

Esperado autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Fonte de data: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Como os estrangeiros são vistos

Abertura em Alemanha

Apenas inquéritos publicados. Cada valor indica a fonte e o ano.

Quem é bem recebido

Percentagem de adultos em Alemanha com opinião favorável de cada país sobre o qual a Pew perguntou.

Indicadores de abertura

Três medidas distintas, cada uma do seu ano. Não as misturamos.

7,120166,42023

O que dizem os expatriados

InterNations Expat Insider 2025: posição entre 46 destinos, 1 é o melhor.

  • Facilidade de adaptação43 de 46
  • Cultura e acolhimento43 de 46
  • Simpatia local42 de 46
  • Fazer amigos42 de 46

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

Em poucas palavras

  • Os expatriados colocaram Alemanha em 43 de 46 na facilidade de adaptação (2025); o melhor subíndice foi simpatia local, na posição 42.
  • Dos 3 países sobre os quais a Pew perguntou aqui, Estados Unidos teve as opiniões mais favoráveis (33%, 2025).
  • As opiniões favoráveis de Rússia passaram de 35% em 2018 para 14% em 2025 (Pew).
  • O Migrant Acceptance Index da Gallup passou de 7,1 em 2016 para 6,4 em 2023, numa escala de 0–9.
Fontes e método

A Pew pergunta a adultos a sua opinião sobre um país. É uma visão do país, não do seu povo nem de qualquer visitante. Nunca estimamos um par que não foi perguntado.

As posições da InterNations vêm de expatriados que vivem no país (46 destinos). O Migrant Acceptance Index da Gallup vai de 0 a 9. O MIPEX pontua leis e políticas de integração de 0 a 100.

O que isto significa para si

O que isto significa para si

Apenas números com uma fonte e uma data. Cada fonte está listada em “Como obtemos estes dados” no fundo da página. Qualquer coisa não listada aqui não está disponível.

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

Fontes, licenças e créditos de imagem

Dados

  • Wire (feeds RSS públicos):X, FAZ Politik, WELT Politik.
  • Sondagens:Forsa Fonte.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • Barómetro editorial de competência económica, não é um tribunal nem um prémio Nobel. Seis eixos: energia, contratação, capital, construção, horas de trabalho, burocracia. As pontuações são um julgamento baseado em registos públicos deste mandato e do anterior — não é uma acusação de suborno, nem uma recomendação de voto.

Fontes do inquérito

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. Fonte. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. Fonte · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
Perguntas que a mesa realmente responde

FAQ

Perguntas que a mesa realmente responde

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
Como obtemos as fontes

Instantâneo do 21º Bundestag e relatórios públicos até 26 de set. de 2026. Fontes ao vivo: Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, além de busca do Grok em 20 contas de políticos e 20 redações no X. Cada notícia é etiquetada por tópico, tom e quem o enquadramento ajuda. A aba Dinheiro usa Großspenden divulgados, o registro de lobby, LobbyControl e DonationWatch — não é um veredito de suborno. A aba Rei é um indicador editorial de crescimento vs trabalho-guerra com cadeias causais — não é um Prêmio Nobel. Não é uma recomendação de voto.

O que isto significa para si

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