Nation Runner

Flag of GermanyCountry desk · updated 29 Oct

Germany

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

Key takeaways

  1. 1

    Polls. AfD leads the latest Forsa poll at 27%, 7 points ahead of CDU/CSU. Biggest move since 15 Sept: Greens -1.

  2. 2

    Headlines. The tone is steady: 14% of the last 14 days' headlines read grim, 5% upbeat. Top topic: Politics (34%).

  3. 3

    Government. Government barometer 55/100 (Mixed record). 11 of 28 moves on file read as smart, 6 as harmful.

  4. 4

    Next vote. Election of the Federal President on 30 January 2027, in 92 days.

Headline mood · 14 days

Line: mood · bars: stories

29 Oct · 8 stories · neutral0 upbeat · 8 neutral · 0 grim

What the headlines are about

  • Politics 34%
  • Security 28%
  • Other 24%
  • Economy 10%
  • Society 4%
  • Climate 1%

A simple word-list estimate from the daily wire headlines. Not a judgement.

Poll trend · Forsa

  • AfD27%+1
  • CDU/CSU20%+1
  • Greens17%
  • SPD13%-1
  • Left11%-1
  • FDP4%

Change against the 13 Oct poll.

Map · mood compared

Germany

Overall mood: 14% grim, 5% upbeat · today +0

What changed today

29 Oct

  • 29 Oct: 8 stories (average 8); tone more upbeat than usual.
  • Latest Forsa poll (20 Oct): AfD +1, CDU/CSU +1 against 13 Oct.

New headlines

6 more of today's reports are only in their original language. Read them in the German edition.

Earlier this week: 10 more headlines

Headlines and summaries come from the linked sources; the selection is automatic.

Go deeper

Parties, people, promises, money

Live snapshot · 21 Sep 2026

Who runs Germany, and what they actually do.

Germany is run by a slim black-red coalition: CDU/CSU plus SPD. They hold 328 of 630 seats — twelve above a majority — after the February 2025 snap election. The AfD is the largest opposition and now leads the polls. The old Volksparteien no longer command most voters. That is the whole landscape.

How to read a score: it is an editorial average of public records on named topics, and the page shows the breakdown. It is not a scientific index and not a recommendation about how to vote.

The room

21st Bundestag

630 seats · 316 to govern

The deal

Schwarz-Rot

CDU/CSU 208 + SPD 120 = 328 seats. Majority is 316. Cushion: twelve seats, and Merz still lost the first chancellor ballot.

The mood

Election vs now

February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026

  • AfD
    29.0%
  • Union
    19.0%
  • Greens
    15.0%
  • SPD
    14.0%
  • Left
    10.0%
  • FDP
    4.0%
  • BSW
    3.0%

Solid bar = INSA on 26 September 2026. Ghost bar = 2025 election share. The Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union are one bloc, because that is how INSA publishes them.

The country

16 Länder, two Germanys

2025 second-vote (Zweitstimme) winner on each tile. The west is still Christian Democratic country. The east is Alternative for Germany country. Berlin is the Left’s only state. Tap a tile for the full stack.

Tile map of the 16 Länder · fill = 2025 Zweitstimme winner · tap a Land

NW

Nordrhein-Westfalen

West

First on this tile: CDU · tap a bar to open the party

Biggest prize. 136 of 630 seats.

The trend

From election night to now

Pollster: INSA telephone survey. Latest point 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September. Read from https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm. Not a forecast.

The split

East vs west, 2025

AfD 34.6% east · Union 30.7% west

The mismatch

Seats they hold vs the poll

The Bundestag is frozen in February 2025. The country is not. Beige is share of 630 seats. Blue is the current poll average.

The faces

Open a dossier

Chancellor, purse, defence, opposition, Bavaria. Full career, what they stand for, who has their ear.

Tap a face for the full profile

The rude gauge

Growth king or a fight with work

Who grows the pie, who picks a fight with work. Cabinet sits at 55 / 100. The cabinet figure is the average of the six-topic scores for the named ministers. A high number means the editorial reading is that their record makes it easier to produce and to hire. A low number means the reading is that their record makes hiring and building harder. The six topics are energy prices, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, and paperwork. This is an editorial gauge. The criteria are the six topics on the chart. It is not a forecast and not a court ruling.

Against the workMixed recordGrowth king

Full causal chains live on every promise

Backstage

Who has their ear

Insurers spent €15.3m last year just to be in the room. CDU took €8m in large gifts since 2025. Reiche walked in from E.ON. Scales for access — not a bribery charge.

Finance · who picks up first

This week

The pulse

Landtag

AfD wins Saxony-Anhalt in a landslide

About 43.8% for the AfD, more than double last time. CDU halved to ~17%. Weidel told the Bundestag: Schwarz-Rot is over, and the AfD will take a governing mandate at Bund level next time.

Polls

AfD first, Union in the cellar

INSA telephone survey of 26 September 2026, 1,203 people, fieldwork 21–25 September, compiled at https://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/insa.htm: Alternative for Germany (AfD) 29, Christian Democratic Union and Christian Social Union together 19, Greens 15, Social Democratic Party (SPD) 14, Left 10, Free Democratic Party (FDP) 4, Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance (BSW) 3. Not a forecast.

Cabinet

New ministers sworn in — late

Bilger, Linnemann and Warken were appointed on 29 July but only sworn in on 8 September. Constitutional lawyers called the gap a problem. Not the reset photo the Chancellery wanted.

Coalition

34-point reform night

Tax relief, sick-note crackdown, flexible contracts, pensions by December. Merz, Klingbeil, Bas and Söder sold it as the modernisation catalogue. Unions and opposition called it a social rollback.

Cabinet

Merz shuffles three jobs

After Jens Spahn left the Union floor-leader post, Warken took the Kanzleramt (first woman), Linnemann took Health, Bilger took Transport. Party reviewers used the word chaotic.

Politics 101

How this country actually works

What is the Bundestag?

The national parliament. 630 people who make federal law and elect the chancellor.

Germany is a parliamentary democracy. You do not elect the chancellor on a ballot — you elect parties and local MPs. The Bundestag then elects the chancellor. The 21st Bundestag has 630 seats. 316 is a majority. Laws also often need the Bundesrat, which is the 16 states, not a second elected house of MPs.

Two votes, one ballot

Erststimme picks a local person. Zweitstimme picks a party — and that one really counts.

The second vote (Zweitstimme) decides how many seats each party gets nationwide. The first vote (Erststimme) decides who wins your constituency. If a party wins more constituencies than its second-vote share, the math used to balloon the house. Since 2023 the house is capped; some constituency winners can now lose their seat. That is why 2025 was also a systems shock, not just a political one.

The 5% hurdle

Under 5% nationwide, you are out — unless you win three constituencies, or you are the SSW.

FDP at 4.3% and BSW at 4.98% both missed in 2025. BSW missed by 9,529 votes. That rounding error let CDU/CSU+SPD govern alone. The SSW is exempt because it represents a recognised national minority. There is also a Grundmandatsklausel: three direct mandates can still lift you in. Die Linke used that logic in past cycles; in 2025 they cleared 5% anyway.

Why coalitions are the whole game

Nobody wins outright. Government is a contract between parties that can stand each other.

The 2025 Union ‘won’ with 28.5% — not a majority. AfD came second but is fenced off. Greens+Union had no majority. FDP was gone. So the only maths that also passed the vibe check was Union+SPD: 328 seats, 12 above the line. That is a ‘grand coalition’ that is no longer grand. Combined they took 44.9% of the vote.

The Brandmauer

A political firewall: no governing with the AfD at federal level. It is a norm, not a law.

Every Bundestag party except the AfD has refused a federal coalition with it. The Union restated that after 2025 even though Union+AfD would have 360 seats. The firewall is now being stress-tested in the east. Saxony-Anhalt 2026 (AfD ~44%) is the loudest test yet. A firewall is only as real as the next Landtag.

East and West are different countries electorally

In the east the AfD is often first. In the west the old Volksparteien still breathe.

In 2025 the AfD took 34.6% in the east and 17.9% in the west. Die Linke and BSW also punch above their weight east of the Elbe. After unification the Volksparteien never fully re-rooted. That is why a national poll showing AfD first is not a glitch — it is the eastern map leaking west.

What the traffic light was

SPD (red) + Greens + FDP (yellow). 2021–2024. Died in a budget fight.

Scholz became chancellor in 2021. The coalition did the Zeitenwende, a cheap train ticket, cannabis, and a heating law that ate the Greens. The constitutional court gutted a budget trick in 2023. Lindner was fired in November 2024, the government lost its majority, Scholz lost a confidence vote, and voters were called back in February 2025.

Year one of Merz

A chancellor who lost his first ballot, a 12-seat majority, and a poll collapse.

Elected 6 May 2025 on a second ballot — a first in federal history. Treaty title: Verantwortung für Deutschland. By autumn 2026 the coalition scores ~15% approval, AfD leads the Sonntagsfrage, Saxony-Anhalt has fallen, and a July reshuffle (Warken, Linnemann, Bilger) was meant to look like a reset. The to-do list is still pensions, tax, and a state that answers email.

Elections

What is on the calendar

National elections and the major votes on these desks, for about the next 24 months. The date comes from the election authority. A poll appears only when a named pollster published it in the last 60 days.

Election of the Federal President

Date set

30 Jan 2027

92 days

The Bundestag calendar lists the Federal Convention for 30 January 2027.

Date source: Deutscher Bundestag

6 more dates

North Rhine-Westphalia state election

Date set

25 Apr 2027

177 days

Date source: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Voting intention

Forsa

Fieldwork 7 Sept 2026 – 18 Sept 2026 · Published 23 Sept 2026

Forsa for Kölner Stadt-Anzeiger and Kölnische Rundschau, as listed by Wahlrecht.de. Fieldwork 7–18 September 2026, published 23 September 2026.

  • CDU29%
  • AfD22%
  • Greens18%
  • SPD14%
  • Left8%
  • FDP3%
  • Others6%

Forsa

Bavaria state election

Expected

Expected autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Bavarian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Date source: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

Hesse state election

Expected

Expected autumn 2028

The federal returning officer lists the next Hessian state election as autumn 2028, without a day.

Date source: Die Bundeswahlleiterin

How foreigners are seen

Openness in Germany

Published surveys only. Each figure shows its source and year.

Who's welcomed

Share of adults in Germany with a favourable opinion of each country Pew asked about. A view of a country, not of its people.

Welcoming index

Derived from the two published measures below, not a survey result. Each input keeps its own year.

64.6/100

Mean of Gallup 6.4 of 9 (2023), rescaled to 71.1, and MIPEX 58 of 100 (2020).

The measures behind it (shown separately)

7.120166.42023

What expats say

InterNations Expat Insider 2025: rank out of 46 destinations, 1 is best.

  • Ease of settling in43 of 46
  • Culture and welcome43 of 46
  • Local friendliness42 of 46
  • Finding friends42 of 46

InterNations, Expat Insider 2025

All desks side by side

Pick a measure. Countries without a published figure show Unknown and sit at the end; they are not counted in the average.

Average of the 20 of 22 desks with a figure: 63.3 of 100. Unknown left out: Georgia, Thailand.

  1. Canada85.72024
  2. United States80.72020
  3. Portugal78.42023
  4. Australia76.82019
  5. Spain73.32024
  6. Ireland72.52023
  7. Netherlands69.92023
  8. Switzerland65.12019
  9. Italy65.12023
  10. United Kingdom64.72020
  11. Germanythis desk64.62023
  12. South Korea64.12020
  13. France63.62024
  14. Japan59.22019
  15. Mexico51.92019
  16. Malta51.52024
  17. Cyprus50.62024
  18. United Arab Emirates46.72019
  19. Greece43.12024
  20. Estonia38.72024
  21. GeorgiaUnknownMIPEX does not cover this country, so the index cannot be built.
  22. ThailandUnknownMIPEX does not cover this country, so the index cannot be built.

In plain words

  • Expats ranked Germany 43 of 46 for ease of settling in (2025); its best sub-score was local friendliness at 42.
  • Of the 3 countries Pew asked about here, United States drew the most favourable opinions (33%, 2025).
  • Favourable opinions of Russia went from 35% in 2018 to 14% in 2025 (Pew).
  • Gallup's Migrant Acceptance Index went from 7.1 in 2016 to 6.4 in 2023, on a 0–9 scale.

Sources and method are listed under “How we source this” at the bottom of the page.

What it means for you

What it means for you

Only figures with a source and a date. Each source is listed under “How we source this” at the bottom of the page. Anything not listed here is not on file.

  • Work

    The statutory minimum wage is 13.90 euro gross per hour from 1 January 2026, and 14.60 euro from 1 January 2027. It applies to employees working in Germany, including foreign employees.

  • Taxes

    The standard VAT rate is 19 percent. A reduced rate of 7 percent applies to the turnovers listed in the VAT act, including many everyday foods. The finance ministry’s May 2026 brochure states the same 19 percent and 7 percent rates, and a wage-tax range of 0 to 45 percent.

  • Benefits

    In 2026 the standard benefit for a single adult in the basic income support for jobseekers is 563 euro a month, unchanged. A partner’s standard amount is 506 euro.

  • Housing

    The same ministry page’s 2026 example for a single adult uses 419 euro a month for housing and heating. That figure is the national analysis for July 2025, published November 2025. It is not the rent cap where you live. Local authorities set their own adequacy limits.

  • Work permit

    For 2026 the EU Blue Card minimum gross salary is 50,700 euro a year. The reduced threshold, including shortage occupations, is 45,934.20 euro. The interior ministry published both figures on 18 December 2025.

Sources, licences and image credits

Data

  • Wire (public RSS feeds): X, tagesschau, WELT Politik, ZEIT Politik, FAZ Politik.
  • Polls: Forsa Source.
  • February 2025 election · INSA telephone survey, 26 September 2026
  • Editorial economic-competence gauge, not a court and not a Nobel. Six axes: energy, hiring, capital, building, hours in work, red tape. Scores are a judgement from public records of this term and the last — not a bribery charge, not a voting recommendation.

Survey sources

  • Germany — Gallup Migrant Acceptance Index 2023: Gallup. Benedict Vigers, “Germany’s Election: 5 Key Issues Facing the Next Chancellor”, 17 February 2025. Table “Germany Less Accepting of Migrants Than in 2016” (7.1 in 2016, 6.4 in 2023). Prose: peaked at 7.3 in 2022. Source. Gallup allows a contextual citation when the publication date and a link are given. The table and graphics are not reproduced.
  • Germany — MIPEX overall score 2020: MIPEX. Solano, Giacomo & Huddleston, Thomas (2020). Migrant Integration Policy Index 2020. Barcelona/Brussels: CIDOB and MPG. ISBN 978-84-92511-83-9. Overall score list: Germany 58. Country chapter: “with a score of 58/100”. Source · PDF. © 2020 MPG and CIDOB. The book asks for this academic citation. The overall score is cited; the book is not reproduced. Public or commercial reuse beyond citation is not claimed.

Image credits

  • Christian Democratic Union logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Christian Social Union logo — Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e. V. · Public domain Source
  • Social Democratic Party logo — Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD) · Public domain Source
  • Alliance 90 / The Greens logo — Unknown author · Public domain Source
  • Alternative for Germany logo — Alternative for Germany · Public domain Source
  • The Left logo — Die Linke Vektorisiert von PantheraLeo1359531 😺 ( talk ) · Public domain Source
  • Free Democratic Party logo — Alexander Svensson · Public domain Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht Alliance logo — Bündnis Sahra Wagenknecht – Vernunft und Gerechtigkeit · Public domain Source
  • South Schleswig Voters’ Association logo — South Schleswig Voter Federation · Public domain Source
  • Friedrich Merz, Federal Chancellor — Steffen Prößdorf · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Lars Klingbeil, Vice-Chancellor · Finance — Martina Nolte · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Alexander Dobrindt, Interior — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Johann Wadephul, Foreign Affairs — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Boris Pistorius, Defence — Daniel Biskup · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Katherina Reiche, Economy & Energy — Grunpfnul · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Dorothee Bär, Research, Tech & Space — Sigismund von Dobschütz · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Stefanie Hubig, Justice & Consumer Protection — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karin Prien, Education & Family — Matthias Süßen · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Alexander Schweitzer, Labour & Social Affairs — Sandro Halank, Wikimedia Commons · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Bärbel Bas, former labour minister — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Karsten Wildberger, Digital & State Modernisation — Leonhard Lenz · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Steffen Bilger, Transport — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Schneider, Environment & Climate — photothek.net · CC BY 4.0 Source
  • Carsten Linnemann, Health — Fotograf Thorsten Schneider · CC BY-SA 3.0 Source
  • Alois Rainer, Agriculture & Heimat — Foto Eiglsperger · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Reem Alabali-Radovan, Development — Photothek · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Nina Warken, Chancellery Chief — TBB-Bilder · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Julia Klöckner, President of the Bundestag — Ralf Roletschek · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Markus Söder, CSU leader · Bavaria MP — Mueller /MSC · CC BY 3.0 de Source
  • Alice Weidel, AfD co-chair · opposition leader — MAGISTER · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Tino Chrupalla, AfD co-chair — TC2021 · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Franziska Brantner, Greens co-chair — Foto-AG Gymnasium Melle · CC BY 3.0 Source
  • Felix Banaszak, Greens co-chair — Superbass · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Heidi Reichinnek, Left group co-leader — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Ines Schwerdtner, Left party co-chair — Olaf Krostitz · CC BY-SA 4.0 Source
  • Sahra Wagenknecht, BSW founder — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Wolfgang Kubicki, FDP party leader — Sven Teschke · CC BY-SA 3.0 de Source
  • Olaf Scholz, Former chancellor — Nebojša Tejić · Public domain Source
  • Frank-Walter Steinmeier, Federal President — president.gov.ua, procession by Roman Kubanskiy · CC BY 4.0 Source
Questions the desk actually answers

FAQ

Questions the desk actually answers

What is the Germany desk on Nation Runner?
The staffed Nation Runner desk for the 21st Bundestag. Landscape, parties, promises, people, pulse, match, money, and the growth-king barometer sit as in-page sections — not separate sites. It is an editorial dashboard, not an official government record.
Is Nation Runner a voting recommendation?
No. Scores, stamps, and needles are editorial judgements. The King tab is a growth versus work-war gauge with causal chains — not a court and not a Nobel. The Money tab maps disclosed access, not bribery.
How current is the Germany snapshot?
Public reporting and Bundestag records through 21 September 2026. Live wires include Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus tagged Grok search of politician and news-desk accounts on X. Case files carry their own published dates.
How does the Money tab score access?
Four legal pipes: Grosspenden over €35k from Bundestag notices, federal lobby-register spend bands, revolving-door jobs, and the associations that already have the appointment. Sector scores run 0–10 as an editorial access map. They are not a forensic audit. The method is written up in the Money case file.
What is the King barometer?
A rude gauge of who grows the pie and who picks a fight with work. Six axes — energy, hiring, capital, building, hours, tape — plus a five-step causal chain from the structural crack to the likely landing. Editorial, not a competency court.
How we source this

Snapshot of the 21st Bundestag and public reporting through 26 Sept 2026. Live wires: Tagesschau, Spiegel, ZEIT, Bundesregierung, Bundestag RSS, plus Grok search of 20 politician accounts and 20 news desks on X. Each news item is tagged for topic, tone, and who the frame helps. Money tab uses disclosed Grosspenden, the lobby register, LobbyControl and DonationWatch — not a bribery verdict. King tab is an editorial growth vs work-war gauge with causal chains — not a Nobel. Not a voting recommendation.

How foreigners are seen

Pew asks adults for their opinion of a country. That is a view of the country, not of its people or of any visitor. We never estimate a pair that was not asked; it shows as unknown.

InterNations ranks come from expats living in the country (46 destinations in 2025). Gallup's Migrant Acceptance Index runs from 0 to 9. MIPEX scores integration law and policy from 0 to 100.

Welcoming index: the mean of the Gallup index rescaled to 0–100 (score ÷ 9 × 100) and the MIPEX overall score, rounded to one decimal. It is derived, not a survey result, and the two inputs come from different years. If either input is missing the index is unknown: it is not estimated, it sorts last and it is left out of the average.

What it means for you

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